The synergy number nobody stress-tested
Most integration plans quietly assume the easy quartile. A simple way to pressure-test synergy estimates before they reach the board.
24 Jun 2026 · 5 minEvidence and intuition, thinking aloud. Field notes on how leaders in financial services navigate change — and create value — with clarity and conviction.
What Parmenides and Zeno can still teach a deal team: how to strip an M&A thesis back to what must be true, test it against evidence, and hold your nerve when the market blinks.
Read the essay →Most integration plans quietly assume the easy quartile. A simple way to pressure-test synergy estimates before they reach the board.
24 Jun 2026 · 5 minTreat a new market like a claim to be disproven, not a plan to be defended — and the go/no-go decision gets much clearer.
12 Jun 2026 · 7 minWhy the most durable value-creation programmes move three levers slowly rather than one lever fast.
30 May 2026 · 4 minConsolidation promises leverage and often delivers friction. A note on where scale actually pays in wealth & advice.
18 May 2026 · 6 minWhat to keep, fix, or exit is rarely a spreadsheet question. Reasoning through the portfolio from first principles.
2 May 2026 · 5 minA working rule for when to defer to the data and when experienced judgement should override it.
19 Apr 2026 · 8 minA short note when there's something worth saying — no cadence, no noise. Just reasoning worth your time.